Monday, June 21, 2010

Toy Story 3 Scores Big On The 1st Week!

As what I've predicted last week, Pixar once again showed off its box office muscle with the record opening for Toy Story 3 which delivered the best debut in company history. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the comic book-inspired Jonah Hex was shot dead on arrival suffering one of the worst openings ever for a summer action film. The overall marketplace bounced back after a few sluggish weeks with the top ten reaching a stellar $184M - the second best performance of 2010 including holiday frames.

Disney and Pixar scored their eleventh consecutive hit with Toy Story 3 which bowed at number one with a staggering $109M, according to estimates. The G-rated reteaming of Woody the Cowboy, Buzz Lightyear, and other memorable characters generated a red hot $27,061 from 4,028 theaters helped by higher 3D ticket prices. It was the second biggest opening ever for a 3D film after Alice in Wonderland's $116.1M from March and the second highest for an animated film trailing Shrek the Third's $121.6M from 2007. Woody and Buzz also tied the $109M opening of last summer's Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen for number ten on the list of all-time biggest debuts and number one on the list of best June premieres.

Critics were all raves for Toy Story 3 which was not surprising since Pixar films hardly ever attract bad reviews. The animation studio's previous best debut was $70.5M for 2004's The Incredibles which translates to about $85M at today's 2D prices. Last summer's Up was Pixar's first 3D entry and bowed to $68.1M but Story's built-in audience helped to bring out a larger audience on opening weekend.

Toy Story 3 launched on Friday with a stunning $41M ranking as the largest opening day ever for an animated film. The CinemaScore grade was an encouraging A. Surprisingly, Saturday sales actually dropped 10% to $37M. Family films tend to jump up on Saturdays but Friday was bigger for Toy due to so many schools being out for the summer and the nature of sequels attracting more demand upfront. Plus, the Friday gross included healthy midnight sales from Thursday night. Shrek Forever After, another recent 3D toon that was a sequel, enjoyed a solid 39% bump on its first Saturday, however schools were all in session in mid-May.

The road ahead is still expected to be a bright one for Toy Story 3 thanks to amazing reviews, strong word-of-mouth, and more schools closing for the summer everyday this week. The Independence Day holiday session is not too far away either and will lead to continued strength into July.

After a surprisingly strong opening weekend, Sony's hit remake The Karate Kid fell 48% to an estimated $29M and broke the $100M mark after just ten days of release. The decline was not bad considering the competition for families that Toy Story gave. Total stands at $106.3M to date with the Jaden Smith vehicle possibly heading for the neighborhood of $175M. That would be some Father's Day gift to producer-dad Will Smith beating many of his own blockbusters like I, Robot, Shark Tale, and the Bad Boys films.

The A-Team dropped a moderate 46% to an estimated $13.8M in its second weekend boosting its ten-day total to $49.8M. Fox's 80s nostalgia trip looks to end its run with $80-90M. Universal's rock star comedy Get Him to the Greek held up well in its third frame with an estimated $6.1M, off 39%, for a $47.9M cume.

Four films snuggled into the tight $5M to $5.5M range according to estimates from their distributors. Final grosses to be reported on Monday could see a change in the rankings. With Buzz Lightyear taking away the 3D toon audience, Shrek Forever After tumbled 65% to an estimated $5.5M bumping its total to $223M. A final gross of $230-235M seems likely. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time enjoyed a remarkably impressive hold dipping only 19% to an estimated $5.3M giving Disney $80.5M to date. Killers followed with an estimated $5.1M, down 36%, for a $39.4M sum for Lionsgate.

Eighth place saw the debut of the year's biggest disaster, Jonah Hex. The PG-13 comic adaptation grossed a microscopic $5.1M from 2,825 theaters for a puny $1,800 average. The Warner Bros. release generated no interest with moviegoers and won over no fans with critics either. Even the reliable comic book crowd stayed away from this one. Starring Josh Brolin, Megan Fox, and John Malkovich, Hex never caught on as a must-see film with audiences and was not based on material with much of a built-in fan base. Rolling the dice with films based on Iron Man, Green Lantern, and Thor make some kind of sense, but nobody asked for a Jonah Hex movie. The turnout was even worse than for Fox's last film Jennifer's Body which bowed to $6.9M in the weak month of September. The only good news for Hex is that the film didn't cost too much. Its reported production budget was about $40M.

# Title Jun 18 - 20

Theaters Weeks
Cumulative Distributor










1 Toy Story 3 $ 109,000,000

4,028 1
$ 109,000,000 Buena Vista
2 The Karate Kid 29,000,000

3,663 2
106,254,000 Sony
3 The A-Team 13,775,000

3,544 2
49,797,000 Fox
4 Get Him to the Greek 6,117,000

2,592 3
47,857,000 Universal
5 Shrek Forever After 5,520,000

3,207 5
222,977,000 Paramount
6 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 5,273,000

2,605 4
80,508,000 Buena Vista
7 Killers 5,100,000

2,619 3
39,370,000 Lionsgate
8 Jonah Hex 5,085,000

2,825 1
5,085,000 Warner Bros.
9 Iron Man 2 2,675,000

1,612 6
304,013,000 Paramount
10 Marmaduke 2,650,000

2,495 3
27,887,000 Fox

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